Surprise Leaders Found In Early Primary Polls

If Iowa, and New Hampsire's polls are any indicator, both primaries are going to be even more wild than most people expect.

Winning Iowa, and New Hampshire are not all-important for a candidate when talking about the electoral college exclusively, as neither state is very big, and therefore neither state has many electoral votes to award.

However, when you're talking about the public perception, which can be everything to a candidates fledgling campaign, Iowa and New Hampshire become ultra-important, based on those two states having the first primaries of a long political season. So new polls that have emerged from these two areas have veteran political operatives raising their eyebrows.

Iowa

Possibly the biggest shock from Iowa comes on the Democratic side, where John Edwards has flown into the lead, after being widely ignored by the national media in favor of Hollywood candidates, Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama. On average, Edwards has a 3 point lead over Clinton, with Obama pulling up 3rd place, 2 and 1/2 points behind the former First Lady, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson pulling up a distant fourth.

On the Republican side, John McCain is holding the slimmest of margins over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with Rudy Giuliani coming in 3rd, and former Senator and current 'Law and Order' actor Fred Thompson (who has not announced a run yet) looking very competitive even in the #4 spot.

New Hampshire

For the Democrats, the numbers aren't surprising except for the wide margin Hilary Clinton has over her challengers, on average, Clinton maintains a 12 point lead over both Obama, and Edwards who are in a virtual dead heat. Both primary polls show a stark difference from the national polls that have Hilary Clinton leading by about 15 points, Barack Obama in 2nd, and John Edwards pulling up a distant third.

For Republicans, Mitt Romney has taken the lead with a 2.5 point lead over John McCain, and Rudy Giuliani again falling to 3rd. The two primary polls have got to be deflating to a Giuliani campaign that has been taking water over the side for several weeks now. If Giuliani were to truly finish 3rd in the actual primaries, you'd have to wonder how much longer he could stay relevant. National polls average still shows Giuliani with a comfortable six point lead over McCain, and has as big a lead as 14 points in the USA Today/Gallup poll.

The National polls still show a grim view for whatever Republican wins their primary, as all candidates would lose to whatever Democrat wins on their side.